US tells Madagascar to steer clear of Russia's Sahel playbook

Lt Gen John Brennan, deputy head of US Africa Command, used an online briefing to caution Madagascar against deepening military cooperation with Russia, pointing to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger as cautionary tales. All three, under military rule, cut loose their Western partners and turned to Moscow for help fighting jihadist groups. The violence didn't stop.

"We are concerned about Russia wanting to proliferate [the Sahel model] elsewhere across the continent," Brennan told reporters. He singled out Madagascar and Mozambique as places Washington does not want to see that template applied, citing their location on a stretch of ocean that carries a hefty share of global trade.

Russia has been building its footprint on the island since the military seized power in 2025, shipping in weapons and military instructors. President Michaël Randrianirina has publicly pushed for closer Russia-Africa ties, and last month's Russia-Africa summit produced cooperation agreements on defence, tourism and trade. In February he flew to Moscow — the first official visit by a Malagasy leader in almost 50 years.

Brennan also trained his sights on the Mozambique Channel, the water separating Madagascar and Mozambique from mainland Africa. He said Islamist State-linked militants in northern Mozambique are adapting their tactics and building maritime capabilities, and pointed to recent piracy incidents along the coast as evidence. Keeping hostile actors away from shipping lanes, he said, is vital.

His message to partners was blunt but hands-off: they are "free to partner with whom they wish," but should weigh the risks first. Madagascar has not publicly responded to the warning.