US heating bills set to climb 7% this winter, with oil users facing a 70% spike

Winter is about to get expensive. Heating bills across the US are projected to climb more than 7% nationwide, with some households facing increases as steep as 70%, according to a new report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), which represents state officials pushing for federal funding.

The pain lands hardest on heating oil users, mostly in the north-east and Alaska. Nearly 5 million households burn the fuel, and their seasonal costs could jump 70% to roughly $2,977. The north-east alone is expected to see average bills rise 16.9%, or $221, climbing from $1,311 last winter to $1,532 this winter — a region already saddled with some of the country's highest electricity prices.

The squeeze traces back to global fuel supplies. Refineries in the Middle East and Russia have shut down or trimmed production amid the US-Israel war with Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine, tightening the market. Neada's executive director, Mark Wolfe, called heating oil the country's energy crisis in miniature, writing last month that the Iran war is deepening it.

Wolfe said the strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile and that uncertainty over global oil supplies makes prices hard to predict. He added it is prudent to assume heating oil prices will stay elevated all winter. In a statement, he said the increases may be an inconvenience for higher-income households but devastating for low- and middle-income families, who are already stretched by food, housing and other costs and could be pushed deeper into debt.

Other fuel users aren't escaping. Electric heating costs could rise about 6%, landing at $1,215, while propane bills are projected to climb roughly 5% to an average of $1,350. The forecasts arrive as about one in six US households are behind on utility payments, collectively owing around $23bn, Neada reported.

It follows a brutal summer. In July, the hottest month ever recorded in the US, utilities cut power to 173,598 households across 10 states despite dangerous temperatures. Neada is now pressing Congress for relief before the winter bills hit, with Wolfe arguing energy is not a luxury and families shouldn't have to choose between heating their homes and affording food, medicine or rent.