Ukraine races to launch its own military satellites as Starlink slows on the front line

Kyiv's first military nanosatellite, Obria Nano, is now circling the Earth. Built by Himera, a Ukrainian company known for military radios, and Denmark's GomSpace, the tiny satellite is the opening move in what its makers hope becomes a Ukrainian constellation. On October 27, Himera called it Ukraine's “first historical step toward establishing resilient and sovereign satellite communications capabilities,” nearly four weeks after it reached orbit.

The timing is not accidental. On Thursday, speeds of Starlink and its Pentagon-run military component Starshield were limited for Ukraine, causing “significant disruptions” along the front line, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. It was the second throttling in weeks: from October 14 to 24, Ukrainian drones flying faster than 60km/h (37mph) lost signal and could not reach their targets. Elon Musk blamed the Pentagon, then admitted he personally authorised the slowdown after The Wall Street Journal reported it.

Kyiv has little room to walk away yet. Starlink is the backbone of Ukrainian military communications, and Anatoly Zak, a US-based space expert, told Al Jazeera that “in the nearest year or two, Starlink and Starshield are absolutely necessary.” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, said “Musk's mood swings play a significant role” — a relationship that soured in late 2022 when Musk refused to switch on coverage over Russian-occupied areas. Musk has since said Kyiv should stay “politically neutral,” hand Crimea to Moscow and hold UN-supervised referendums; Zelenskyy fired back that Musk should come to Ukraine and “see it all for yourself.”

Moscow is building its own answer and stumbling. The Rassvet (Dawn) constellation is run by Kremlin-controlled Bureau 1440, which plans 900 satellites in orbit by 2035. Its satellites turned out to be Chinese-made Qianfan craft, and in August the Institute for the Study of War said more than a third failed to reach sustainable operational altitudes. By early November, Moscow had lost two of the 32 Rassvet 3 satellites launched in the past seven months, the second burning up on November 1 after its propulsion failed to fire, according to Ukrainian outlet The Defence Express. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, called Musk a “real genius” on October 28 and said Russia is in “close contact” with American partners about keeping order in orbit.

Alternatives exist, but they are thinner. US-based Iridium flies 66 satellites at about 800km (497 miles); OneWeb, owned by France's Eutelsat, has up to 650 at 1,200km (746 miles) but is not authorised for military drone strikes. An average Ukrainian terminal sees five dozen Starlink satellites at once — and only 11 OneWeb. Analysts Pavel Luzin of the Jamestown Foundation said Kyiv's real options are expensive geosynchronous satellites lasting up to 20 years, or hundreds of cheap low-orbit craft that must be constantly replaced, plus cheaper stratospheric drones as “quasi-satellites.”