Trump Says Iran War 'Effectively' Over as Qatar-Brokered Talks Speed Up

Donald Trump met Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani behind closed doors at the White House on Monday, and came out calling the war on Iran 'effectively' at an end. The US president said American forces are 'fully locked and loaded with the best equipment ever made' but argued there would likely be no reason to use it, because negotiations with Tehran are 'going very well'. Oil prices dropped sharply on the same day as hopes for diplomacy revived.

Iran is talking peace without dropping its guard. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday the war would 'not end either through military means or by increasing sanctions', only by 'using the language of respect'. A day earlier, President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signalled openness to negotiations, instructing the leadership to end the 'no war, no peace' reality — 'we can hold talks with dignity and bring the matter to an end with dignity', he said.

Washington's own politics are driving the shift. This month's Republican rout in the midterms, which Trump and Vice President JD Vance both conceded was shaped by a war that rattled energy markets and living costs, has handed Democrats control of Congress. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, in line to become speaker in January, told reporters the party will 'end the war in Iran one way or the other', and outgoing Republican lawmaker Thomas Massie moved to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the conflict.

Analyst Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy said the defeat 'dramatically raised the political cost of more escalation', pushing Democrats toward a 'stronger and more united opposition to war'. She also pointed to Benjamin Netanyahu's wobble: after Israel's October 27 election, rival Gadi Eisenkot was tasked on Saturday with assembling a coalition that can survive the Israeli prime minister's right-wing bloc. Qatar's intensive mediation with both capitals rounds out the push, she said.

The gaps remain wide. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei accused Washington of spreading 'fake news' about talks and demanded it accept Tehran's seven conditions, including lifting the naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets. Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said that 'would come at a huge cost', since a deal without nuclear concessions 'would amount to an admission of defeat'.

Trump is keeping pressure on. He told C-SPAN he 'may have to hit Pickaxe Mountain', the site Washington says houses a deep underground Iranian nuclear facility, and dismissed strikes on Qeshm island as 'minor strikes' on air defences and launchers. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit and the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group are due in the region later this month, while Trump claimed on Truth Social that Gulf states prefer keeping the economic blockade to an escalation 'approximately five times bigger than the first hit'.