Tigray's TPLF denies defeat as fighting grinds on after Mekelle fall

Ethiopia's federal army marched into Mekelle in under two weeks after fighting erupted in late September, but the Tigray People's Liberation Front insists it chose that outcome. TPLF spokesperson Mikael Asgedom, speaking by phone from an undisclosed location, told the BBC the pullback was a "strategic withdrawal" designed to lure federal forces deep into Tigray where they can be isolated. "This is not a defeat," he said, adding the group is prepping a major counteroffensive and has already hit Ethiopian positions in several spots.

Life in the regional capital is grim regardless of who claims the upper hand. Firut Me'ar, who runs a hair salon in Mekelle, said business is "almost non-existent" and customers can't feed their kids, let alone pay for self-care. "Things are better than during the war, but people still have no money, no morale," she told the BBC, her voice shaking. Above all, she said, residents are gripped by "uncertainty about what comes next."

Hundreds are reported dead from the renewed conflict, including dozens killed in drone strikes and air force bombing raids. Phone and internet lines cut when fighting began have been restored, and residents across Tigray tell the BBC that combat continues in the central, northern and north-western zones with heavy artillery and drones. Near Sheraro, by the Eritrean border, a businessman described hearing constant shelling and said military convoys from both sides were rolling toward the town.

Analyst Cameroon Hudson says the TPLF's collapse has several causes: lost popular support, a fragmented leadership, and no answer to the Ethiopian National Defence Forces' advanced weaponry. He points to generals, strategists and diplomats lost to defections or arrests, plus infighting that has "caused significant damage." Mekelle University scholar Abraha Hailezgi adds that the TPLF army became tied to forced recruitment and abuses, so many Tigrayans now see it "as an adversary rather than a force acting on their behalf."

Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF figure who switched sides and now advises the prime minister, declared the war over and said stabilising Tigray is the priority. Not everyone buys the clean victory. Ethiopian commentator Yared Tibebu told the BBC he sees "a situation in which there could be a prolonged war in Tigray," citing the TPLF's 50-year history of protracted struggle. Hudson disagrees on scale but not on duration, predicting a low-level insurgency and guerrilla campaign rather than a wider conflict.

The return of Eritrean soldiers, accused of some of the worst atrocities in the 2020-2022 war, has reopened old wounds for residents. That earlier conflict is estimated to have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, with allegations of ethnic cleansing in Western Tigray. Mikael dismissed talk of internal TPLF divisions and said the group arms itself by seizing weapons from the Ethiopian military: "the weaponry that has entered Tigray will, sooner or later, become ours."