Peltola likely to flip Alaska Senate seat, NBC News Decision Desk says

Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is likely to take Alaska's Senate seat, per an analysis from NBC News' Decision Desk. That call comes with at least 95% confidence that she wins, and it lands a week after polls closed with ballots still being tallied. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running behind her, and neither candidate sits above the 50% mark.

Peltola has stretched her slim edge wider with every fresh batch of results reported this week. Alaska is now the lone 2026 Senate race the Decision Desk hasn't projected. Should she hold on, Democrats would control the chamber 56-44 next year.

The count is dragging because Alaskans vote heavily by mail. Ballots postmarked by Election Day still count if they landed by Nov. 13, and valid overseas ballots get a few extra days past that. In a margin this tight, those late arrivals carry real weight.

Alaska's ranked-choice system adds another layer. If nobody clears a majority on the first ballot, the lowest-placed candidate drops out and their supporters' second choices get counted. That cycle repeats until one candidate reaches a majority.

Sullivan, the incumbent Republican, has trailed through the week's vote dumps as Peltola's advantage grew. The race stays uncalled while the remaining mail and overseas ballots are processed.