Oil Rebounds From Two-Month Low as Hormuz Tanker Attacks Keep Piling Up

Brent futures rose 71 cents, or 0.78%, to $92.20 a barrel by 0119 GMT on Wednesday, clawing back ground after the previous session's two-month low. US West Texas Intermediate added 49 cents, or 0.57%, to $86.53. The market is caught between betting on de-escalation in the Iran war and watching ships burn in the Strait of Hormuz.

The attacks haven't let up. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 ships struck in the strait and nearby waterways in October — the highest monthly tally since the war started — plus 10 more in November so far. On Sunday, Reuters-verified video showed a Navig8 tanker ablaze off Oman's coast, one of three vessels hit for taking what Iranian state broadcaster called 'unauthorised routes' through the strait.

More followed. UKMTO reported another tanker struck northeast of Oman's Lima on Tuesday, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on the 'unauthorized route.' LSEG analysts wrote in a November 10 note that even a deal wouldn't quickly restore flows, since that depends on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether shipowners would take the risk at all. 'Meanwhile, attacks have not slowed,' they added.

Prices had initially dropped more than $3 a barrel Tuesday after US officials downplayed the need for further military strikes on Iran, then recovered some losses when an Iranian security official said no talks were underway. Supply-side pressure is building elsewhere too: market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said US crude stocks rose 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, while industry sources put Russia's oil refining capacity down about 30% since late October after fresh Ukrainian drone attacks.

On the diplomatic front, Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for their first peace talks since February, as envoys for US President Donald Trump pushed a fresh effort to end the war.