Nvidia falls 6.3% as Baird and Oppenheimer cut ratings on AI capex and Huang doubts

Baird kicked it off on Nov. 11, downgrading Nvidia to neutral from outperform and trimming its price target to $200, down from $500. The firm flagged two worries: a possible pullback in AI-related spending by hyperscalers, and uncertainty over CEO Jensen Huang's future. Oppenheimer followed on Nov. 12, cutting the stock to Perform and pulling its target entirely. Stifel kept a Buy rating but lowered its target to $205, down from $315, while Bernstein moved to $200, down from $400.

This is not a demand miss. The selloff is being driven by a governance and leadership shock, per Blockchain.News, with the market now discounting a potential change in Nvidia's leadership structure while questioning whether the AI spending cycle can stay this aggressive. Yahoo Finance reported the stock bounced on Nov. 11 after CoreWeave's earnings lifted the chip sector — but that rally sits underneath the harder leadership headlines and analyst resets.

The tape shows the damage. Nvidia traded at $161.78, down 6.32% over 24 hours, with an intraday range of $153.71 to $178.61. It sits below every major average: SMA 7 at $175.60, SMA 20 at $196.28, SMA 50 at $214.12 and SMA 200 at $212.97 — a clean bearish alignment. Momentum is washed out, with the 14-day RSI at 21.67 and a negative MACD. Bollinger positioning shows %B at 0.0208, with price hugging the lower band at $160.27.

The levels to watch are clear. Immediate support sits at $150.79, with strong support marked at $139.80. To the upside, the pivot is $164.70, immediate resistance is $175.69 and stronger resistance is $189.60. The 14-day ATR of $10.76 suggests swings can stay wide enough to overshoot those levels. A move back through $164.70 would suggest the first phase of liquidation is easing; losing $150.79 would signal more risk still needs flushing out.

Derivatives traders were still crowded long into the drop. Binance perpetual futures show a positive funding rate of 0.0696%, meaning longs are paying shorts. The global long/short ratio reads 8.0744, with 89.0% long against 11.0% short, and top traders are even more one-sided at 91.4% long versus 8.6% short. Open interest fell 14.06% over 24 hours to 2,247,709.83 contracts, pointing to closing and liquidations rather than fresh conviction. Taker flow leans sell-side, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.8618.

The near-term map: stabilizing above $164.70 and recovering through $175.69 would be the first sign the post-news damage is being absorbed. Reclaiming the 20-day average at $196.28 would make the chart look less like a liquidation event and more like a violent reset inside a broader secular story. Lose $150.79 and the next test is $139.80 — and an oversold RSI alone would not be enough to stop it.