Nebius Plans $40B-$45B Capex for 2027, With Customers Footing Much of the Bill

Nebius Group is gearing up for a spending spree. The Amsterdam-based AI cloud provider told shareholders it plans capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027, a budget the company says will add more than 1 GW of capacity. The forecast landed in its Q3 2026 shareholder letter on November 12.

That range towers over this year's number. Nebius now expects 2026 capex of about $27 billion, above its earlier estimate of $20 billion to $25 billion. On the other side of the ledger, it is guiding to 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, which the company describes as nearly a fourfold increase over 2026, and targeting pre-tax breakeven by Q4 2027.

The funding mix is where it gets interesting. Nebius says $10 billion in customer prepayments was committed in 2026 and projects that will reach $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027. In Q3 2026, prepayments covered more than 100% of associated contract-related capex, up from 50% to 60% coverage in Q2. Nebius is also pointing to asset-backed financing alongside those prepayments.

Its backlog leans hard on a few names. Nebius says total commitments exceed $40 billion, with a Microsoft deal worth approximately $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion as the biggest single piece, plus multiple agreements with Meta. New contract value signed since the quarter closed has already topped $12 billion, according to the company.

The current numbers show why demand hasn't cooled. Nebius posted Q3 2026 revenue of $981 million, up 571% year over year. For investors, the open questions are whether the $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027 prepayments actually lands, how fast new contracts convert to recognized revenue, and whether the 2027 capex range holds or gets revised again.