Museveni's son arrests generals as Uganda's succession fight boils over

Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba turned his fire on Vice-President Jessica Alupo this week, threatening to dismiss her and suggesting he should take her office. On the night of 9 November he wrote on X that whoever holds the job should prepare to hand it over soon, posts he later deleted. The next day his account, followed by nearly 1.4 million people, became inaccessible, and it was unclear whether he deactivated it himself or the platform suspended it. Alupo remains in office and has yet to respond publicly.

That threat lands in the middle of a crackdown that has rattled Uganda's top brass. At least a dozen generals and senior officers have been arrested in the past 15 months, according to Uganda's Daily Monitor, including three former military intelligence chiefs. Lt Gen Peter Elwelu, a former deputy army chief, was detained on 2 November over allegations he plotted to destabilise the eastern Teso region. Kainerugaba had already declared on X that the traitor Elwelu was stripped of his three-star rank and demoted to private — an announcement Ugandan media noted military regulations do not allow through a social media post.

The army confirmed Elwelu's detention and said it recovered 15 guns, military uniforms and two pickup trucks linked to him. His family rejects the allegations. Maj Gen James Birungi, a former head of defence intelligence and security, was arrested in August 2025 over allegations including treason, terrorism and corruption, charged before a military court, then released after Kainerugaba announced he had forgiven him. Maj Gen Abel Kandiho was detained in September over claims of providing false intelligence and treachery, and the Daily Monitor says he is still held. His predecessor, Brig-Gen Charles Bakahumura, was arrested the same month on similar allegations and later freed after the general's forgiveness. The military has defended the arrests as part of tackling corruption and criminality in the armed forces.

Politics is running underneath it all. An 10 November meeting of the NRM's top leadership ended without agreement on a proposal to position Kainerugaba as Museveni's successor, AFP reported, citing five party sources who said a vote was abandoned after several members spoke against it. ChimpReports said most members who spoke backed the general's potential presidency, though some questioned his readiness for civilian leadership. NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong Awany confirmed the party met to discuss political, social and economic issues, dismissed reports the gathering rejected the proposal, and said decisions would be communicated through the right channel, at the right time.

Analysts are split on what the detentions mean. Dr Gerald Bareebe, a Ugandan-born political scientist at York University, links them to the succession fight, saying senior officers believed not to support the so-called Muhoozi Project have been arrested, detained or charged with corruption and treason, and describing a broad purge of serving and retired officers perceived as anti-Muhoozi. Security analyst Freddie David Egesa argues the arrests reflect investigations by different security agencies rather than an army-led purge, and that detaining senior officers protects witnesses. Government spokesperson Allan Kasujja called claims of a succession fallout hogwash, and the NRM has labelled reports of a leadership rebuff completely false.

Kainerugaba, 52 and widely seen as a potential successor to a father who has ruled for four decades, works differently from his predecessors: he uses X to announce arrests, criticise public officials and comment on domestic and international affairs, and some posts have sparked diplomatic controversy. Egesa says that reflects his preferred style of communicating, and that security analysts are assessing the implications for Uganda's political and military stability.