Kalshi traders put 44% odds on a government shutdown December 12

Kalshi traders are giving a federal shutdown a 44.2% chance of being in effect on December 12, 2026. The contract only pays out if a partial shutdown is live at 10:00 a.m. ET that day, and it needs confirmation through Office of Management and Budget or Office of Personnel Management directives to count. A late-night funding lapse that gets patched before morning would not trigger a payout.

The December market has been trading since September 2026 and has recently bounced around a range of roughly 41% to 45%, with 44.2% leading as of late November. Cumulative volume has cleared $248,000. Daily activity runs near $16,000, with about 16,000 contracts changing hands.

The government is running on borrowed time. H.R. 6500, which took effect September 2, 2026, keeps funding secured only until December 11, 2026. As of mid-November, Congress had not finalized any full-year appropriations bills.

The odds have swung with every signal out of Washington. Kalshi's shutdown probability sat at 46% in late September, slid into the low 30s by late October, then pushed back above 40%. That path lands in the lame-duck session after the midterm elections, when outgoing members have less at stake and incoming ones have not yet been seated.

History is not helping the bulls. Two earlier 2026 funding deadlines, January 31 and February 14, both ended in shutdowns, and one of those lapses stretched between 75 and 79 days. Polymarket, Kalshi's rival, has shown similar shutdown probabilities.

Thin markets can overshoot. With daily volume in the low tens of thousands of dollars, a few large trades can nudge the price more than a real shift in expectations would. Any movement on a new stopgap or a full-year appropriations package should pull the odds lower, while fresh gridlock in the lame-duck session would push them back toward or past the 46% high from late September.