Iran War Cuts Global Fossil Fuel Emissions for First Time Since Covid

Planet-warming pollution from fossil fuels is on track to fall in 2026, the first annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new data from the Global Carbon Project. The projected drop is small — less than half a percent compared with 2025 — but it flips what analysts had expected. They had forecast emissions to rise this year.

The culprit this time is war, not plague. Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the first U.S.-Israeli strikes, choking off a route that carries roughly 25% of the world's crude oil and 19% of its liquified natural gas. Prices for both fuels spiked brutally, pushing countries to burn less and chase alternatives like EVs and renewables.

Not every nation went green. Several leaned on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel of all, to ride out the crunch. The Global Carbon Project's numbers show that coal bump was outweighed by a sharp fall in oil consumption in particular — enough to tip the global total negative.

What happens next is up for debate. Some analysts say oil and gas demand will come roaring back once the war ends. Others argue the price shock has kicked off a wave of cleantech adoption that is here to stay — leaving 2026 as either a turning point or a one-off aberration like 2020.