IEA chief at Cop31: World has entered the 'age of electricity'

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told The Guardian at the Cop31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, that fossil fuels have lost their crown. He said the next decade will see about 12,000 gigawatts of electricity added worldwide, compared with 5,000 gigawatts in the past 10 years. “We will still use oil and gas, but the dominant source of energy is becoming electricity,” Birol said.

The summit brings together governments from 185 countries, and a resolution is on the table to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035. Most countries back it, according to Birol, who has worked closely with the Turkish and Australian governments jointly presiding over the talks. He called it potentially “one of the most consequential decisions coming from Cops in the last several years.”

Even if the resolution fails — Saudi Arabia and Russia are said to be opposed, and consensus rules mean a small number of countries can hold the rest to ransom — Birol said progress would continue regardless. He named three drivers: AI and datacentres, the electrification of transport, and air conditioning, the largest by volume. Electric car sales outside China have risen 60% in the last nine months, and about one-third of all cars sold this year are expected to be electric, up from 5% five years ago.

Air conditioning is booming as heatwaves grow more intense, Birol said. About 90% of US households have access to AC, but fewer than 20% in India and about 5% in Nigeria. “Global energy demand is growing strongly, but global electricity demand is growing three times faster than total energy demand,” he said. “And it is impossible to stop it.”

Electricity already fulfils about a quarter of most energy needs, while fossil fuels supply three-quarters of final energy worldwide, mostly for transport, heating and industry. Birol blamed the UK’s high electricity prices on reliance on imported gas, saying the solution is building more renewable electricity at home. “The one and only issue is making electricity affordable for people,” he said.

If adopted, the pledge would send “an unmistakable signal to the markets and investors that governments see that the future of energy is in electricity,” Birol said. He added it would lead to a “secure, more affordable and more livable planet.”