GOP shell-shocked after midterm rout, but still won't blame Trump

Republicans got crushed in the 2026 midterms — and on Capitol Hill, almost nobody wants to say the president had anything to do with it. The party lost more than 40 House seats and at least seven Senate seats, including races in deep red territory. Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., summed up the mood bluntly: “We forgot those people out there are hurting, and they vote. We got our ever-loving butt handed to us.”

But when NBC News asked Justice whether President Donald Trump's decisions — launching the unpopular Iran war and imposing tariffs that drove up costs — fueled the rout, the first-term senator stalled. “Look, everything plays a part in the whole deal,” he said, without pinning it on Trump, adding that the president processed the Iran situation “as best he possibly can.”

The numbers behind the defeat are stark. NBC News' National Exit Polls found 74% of voters called the Iran war either “crucial” or “a major factor” in their congressional votes, and 64% said Trump's tariffs hurt the economy in their areas. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., waved off foreign policy as the culprit, calling 2026 “an economic election.” Kennedy said Republicans need “consensus on what we need to change” but drew the line at criticizing Trump: “I don't have any advice today for the president.”

Most of the survivors followed the same script. Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colo., who lost his district by 15 percentage points after winning it narrowly two years ago, declined to say whether the war or tariffs hurt him, saying he'd “have to get back to you.” Rep. Lauren Boebert, trailing by more than 3,000 votes with 98% of the expected vote counted in an uncalled Colorado race, blamed everyone: “We collectively failed.” Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., listed abandoned promises to the poor and working class as the reason for the thrashing — Trump didn't make his list.

Only Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said out loud that the White House misread its 2024 win. “They got ahead of their blockers. They didn't consult with Congress. We went too far,” he said, pointing to the “time, the speed” and the messaging. Tillis announced in June 2025 he'd retire after clashing with Trump — and the Trump-backed nominee for his seat, Michael Whatley, lost by 19 points.

If the early signals hold, the GOP's plan for Trump's final two years is loyalty, not pushback. House Republicans moved to elect ultraconservative Trump ally Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio as minority leader, a clear sign the conference is staying in line even after voters delivered their verdict.