Glassnode Warns Bitcoin Is 'Running on Empty' as Liquidity Drains

Glassnode dropped a report titled 'Running on Empty' on X Wednesday, November 11, and the diagnosis is blunt: bitcoin's market structure has weakened. The firm points to thinning liquidity, fading US demand and losses piling up for recent buyers, all of which limits the fuel available for a comeback. Price has slipped below the short-term holder breakeven of $75,600, meaning a big chunk of recent buyers are underwater, and bitcoin is still underperforming stocks.

The capital data backs it up. Per DefiLlama, total stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion in just 30 days, the sharpest contraction since June 2022. US spot ETFs posted $1.6 billion in net outflows across twenty sessions. The premium on Coinbase also stayed negative, printing its widest discount since February, according to Glassnode.

Selling pressure is stacked above the current price. Glassnode flags an excess of coins acquired at higher levels, a supply overhang stretching up to $83,600 that could cap any rebound. Only 35% of short-term held bitcoin is in profit now, a sharp reversal from September's peak, when nearly all of those positions were green. Some relief: the recent drop flushed out leveraged longs near spot, and buy orders now outnumber sell orders in the book analyzed.

The order book shows where traders are watching. Glassnode sees heavy buy orders between $68,000 and $72,500, while liquidations cluster between $59,500 and $62,600 below. Liquidity above current prices stays thin up to $84,000, with short liquidations concentrated around $87,500. Glassnode's three reference levels: the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, a $77,500 market real average, and the $77,800 election-day close.

CoinGlass data shows professional positioning still slightly bullish on paper. Open interest on options sits at 439,966 BTC, worth roughly $33 billion, split 55.72% calls to 44.28% puts for a put/call ratio of 0.79. Deribit holds the big bets: a November $81,000 call at 8,305.9 BTC, a December 25 $80,000 call at 8,113.9 BTC and a $100,000 contract at 6,612.7 BTC.

Fresh flow tells a more defensive story. Option exchanges traded 45,210 BTC in 24 hours, with puts at 50.32% versus calls at 49.68%, mostly in November 12 and 13 expiries at $72,000-$75,500 strikes. Deribit puts at $72,000 and $73,000 logged 730.3 and 715.8 BTC. Deribit volumes eased to about $5 billion this month from roughly $11.5 billion in September. On Polymarket, the November price market drew $5.17 million across 28 targets: 91% odds of holding above $75,000, 62% at $77,500, 39% at $80,000 and just 1% for $100,000. The pre-2027 market, with $84.26 million in volume, gives 61% to $70,000 and 20% to $60,000.