France warns Germany its new missiles risk tripping nuclear war with Russia

French and German officials are heading into talks over how Berlin would actually use the long-range missiles it is buying and building — and Paris wants the answer in writing before anything is fired. Germany is reportedly acquiring ground-launched missiles with ranges running from 500km to beyond 2,000km, part of a wider European push alongside the UK, Poland and others to make Moscow think twice. The fear, according to the Financial Times, is that unclear signalling could pull a conventional strike up to a nuclear response.

The confusion sits on a phrase: deep precision strikes. One French official spelled out the danger of an ambiguous attack on a Russian target, saying: “If the Russians don’t get the signal right you could get to the nuclear threshold without realising.” Six people familiar with the talks told the FT that French officials want an agreement on aligning the two countries’ defence programmes to close that gap.

France has its own skin in the game. Under Emmanuel Macron’s “forward deterrence” policy, Moscow could hold Paris responsible for strikes carried out by its partners — a calculation one official with knowledge of the discussions put bluntly: “If you invite someone into your house, you are responsible if they set it ablaze.”

Germany gets the focus partly because of the money: a €780bn defence budget across the five years to 2030. “There are habits we developed over time. The Germans do not have it,” one source said, arguing for a clear, public doctrine so that “the Russians never get a signal wrong or misunderstand.” A senior German official said Berlin agreed European capitals needed “a joint doctrine and a joint understanding about the escalation ladder,” adding the government “could not agree more” with the assessments.

Not everyone in Europe is rattled. A British official called the fears potentially overestimated right now, noting “Germany’s strategic culture is evolving very quickly” and that “we absolutely believe we should embrace that, not cling to the past stereotypes.” The talks land after reports earlier this year that Germany was in discussions to fund Britain’s Trident programme, as Europe tries to thicken its nuclear deterrent against Putin.