Diesel plunges 7.9% but truck freight jumps 3.9%, squeezing Bitcoin bulls

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped its October producer-price report on Nov. 13, and the fuel story cut both ways. Diesel prices fell 7.9% while truck freight prices rose 3.9%. The BLS pinned more than 80% of October's 0.2% rise in final-demand services prices on truck freight alone. Transportation and warehousing services climbed 2%, even as final-demand energy prices slipped 0.1% and goods prices added 0.5%.

Headline final-demand PPI rose 0.3% in October, seasonally adjusted, a sharp slowdown from September's revised 1.4% increase. But the measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.5% for a second straight month. Its annual increase eased to 4.9% from 5%, while headline annual PPI accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%. Unprocessed intermediate goods prices fell 3.1%.

The Fed's next move is still open. Governor Christopher Waller, speaking before that day's CPI release, leaned toward a 25-basis-point December rate increase if conditions developed as expected — and said 50 basis points should be considered if October core CPI resembled the prior two readings around 0.3% or higher. The CPI report then showed a 0.4% monthly headline increase and a third consecutive 0.3% gain excluding food and energy.

Bitcoin is feeling the pinch. BTC traded at $68,097.83, down 4.50% in 24 hours, down 10.31% over seven days and down 16.51% over 30 days, still under $70,000. Cheaper diesel doesn't automatically mean cheaper transport — the freight increase undercuts that assumption — and the route from producer prices to easier financing stays conditional.

One distinction worth keeping straight: PPI tracks the selling prices domestic producers receive, CPI tracks prices consumers pay, and the Fed targets PCE. Sustained ETF inflows would give firmer evidence of buyers returning than an inflation-based expectation, while continued withdrawals would keep the case weaker even if diesel keeps getting cheaper.