Corporate Bitcoin Selling Hits Rare Low as Strategy Braces for MSCI Call

The Bitcoin Treasuries Buy-Sell Ratio — corporate buying measured against selling — has slid to 89.58%. Capriole Investments founder and BeInCrypto Expert Council member Charles Edwards flagged the reading on X, calling it treasury-company capitulation and noting the historical pattern has been a good thing for Bitcoin. Only three other moments have pushed the ratio under 90%.

Those moments were December 2019, June 2022 and September 2024. According to BeInCrypto's historical review, Bitcoin went on to gain between 2.1 and 9.6 times its value after each signal. The catch: prices first fell another 11% to 46%, which is why the gauge marks heavy selling periods rather than the exact bottom.

Per Lookonchain, 14 public companies have sold or transferred an estimated 108,247 BTC, worth $8.08 billion. Miners are driving most of that activity, with MARA out front at 40,581 BTC sold, including 13,597 BTC used to repay Bitcoin-backed loans. The tracker notes some figures reflect estimated outflows and trading-related deliveries rather than confirmed spot sales.

Strategy is moving the other way. The company bought another 1,036 BTC between November 2 and 8, even though Bitcoin was trading below its average acquisition cost. That buying streak now runs into a hard deadline: MSCI will announce index removals shortly after 11 p.m. CET on November 11.

New eligibility rules could knock Strategy and Metaplanet out of major stock indexes. Strategy estimates MSCI-tracking funds hold roughly $1.6 billion of its shares, and JPMorgan has projected potential outflows of $2.8 billion. Exclusion would push affected index funds to sell MSTR, potentially denting Strategy's ability to raise cash for more Bitcoin buys — though the company would not have to sell any of its Bitcoin, and any index changes only take effect after November 30.