Core Inflation Reignites as 76% of CPI Components Run Hot

Inflation isn't just sticky — it's spreading. Core CPI climbed to a 3-month annualized rate of 3.75% in October, the hottest reading since April 2024, according to @KobeissiLetter. That's the third straight monthly increase. Back in July, the same measure sat at just 1.64%.

The number the Fed watches closest is running even hotter. Supercore CPI — core services minus shelter — jumped to a 3-month annualized rate of 5.45%, its highest since mid-2024. That's the category policymakers have repeatedly flagged as the clearest read on underlying price pressure, and it's moving the wrong way.

The breadth is the real story. The weighted share of CPI components rising above 2% on an annualized basis hit 76% last month — the widest since August 2022. Since July alone, that measure has climbed 17 percentage points, its sharpest three-month jump since early 2021.

Put together, the data undercuts any talk of a clean victory over inflation. Prices aren't rising in a few isolated corners anymore; they're rising almost everywhere at once. As @KobeissiLetter put it, the Fed's fight is far from over.