COP31 concedes 1.5C is blown, then pitches a non-binding 35 by 35

For the first time, the UN climate talks have conceded that the 1.5C target has been blown. The forecast for global warming, previously 2.6C, has crept up and now sits at 2.7C. That's the mood in Antalya, Türkiye, where organisers say 94,866 people — among them 34,000 national delegates — are attending the two-week COP31 conference.

The centrepiece is a plan co-hosted by Türkiye and Australia called 35 by 35: lifting electricity's share of final energy consumption to around 35 per cent by 2035. But the proposal's own language only talks of advancing a shared ambition, while recognising different national circumstances. It isn't binding, and it puts no restrictions on what kind of energy generates that electricity.

France says the pledge is worth nothing if it's built on fossil-fuel power, and critics warn it could lock in fossil fuels for longer. Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who is chairing negotiations between 190 countries, rejects that, saying the target would require countries to quadruple the current pace of electrification — four times faster take-up of electric cars, wind and solar, greener buildings and transport. Electricity makes up about 23 per cent of energy consumption today, forecast to reach 30 per cent.

The international think tank the Energy Transitions Commission has estimated that even if the whole 35 by 35 pledge ran on clean energy, it would cut global warming by only about 0.3C.

The guest list is thin at the top. The United States is absent at national level after Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement for a second time. China's Xi Jinping skipped it, sending Vice-President Han Zheng; India's Narendra Modi, Canada's Mark Carney and Japan's Sanae Takaichi are all no-shows, and Britain's prime minister appeared only briefly. Türkiye marked opening day by announcing new oil discoveries would lift daily production past 100,000 barrels in the second half of next year.

Matt Kean, who chairs Australia's Climate Change Authority, said decarbonising the grid, electrifying as much as possible and sequestering carbon in the landmass would get Australia to 62 to 70 per cent emissions reduction, with research and development needed for steel and cement. There is outrage at the summit that the agenda doesn't directly mention cutting fossil fuels — a deliberate call by Türkiye and Australia after past talks foundered on setting such targets. The plight of Palestinians in Gaza has also been raised in environmental terms, and not only by activists like Greta Thunberg.