Burnham tells Labour to 're-arm' as Badenoch's Tories climb back

Andy Burnham has told Labour to get ready for a Kemi Badenoch comeback, urging the party to refocus on the Conservatives as an electoral threat again. Downing Street sources say the prime minister wants Labour HQ to shift attention back to the Tories after more than two years spent prioritising Nigel Farage's Reform and, on the left flank, the Greens. One No 10 insider summed it up to the Guardian: the Tories may be trailing now, but they are in contention, and Labour needs to be ready.

The polling gives the push its edge. The Conservatives took 24% of the vote at the last general election before slipping to 18% — then More in Common put them at 25% last week, the first time in 18 months they have topped their share from that record defeat. Tory MPs who once treated their party's position as existential now believe there is a route back, with Badenoch finally treating the economy, not culture wars, as her opening.

No one is telling Burnham to drop the fight against Reform. A senior Downing Street figure said he does not want officials taking their eyes off Farage's party, which has slid in the polls amid scrutiny of its finances, but he does want them planning for a potential Tory resurgence too. Labour officials insist the Conservatives remain the official opposition and stay in their sights day to day, while conceding the wider strategy needs stepping up. A former Keir Starmer staffer said every arm of the party had been built around taking on Reform — and that can change, but only if the work starts now.

A third No 10 insider described Badenoch's approach as a party base strategy aimed at higher earners, mostly in the south, arguing it will not be enough to win the next election but does pull the Tories into contention. Her personal ratings are relatively strong, yet a third of people who told More in Common she was doing a good job still said they would not vote for her party.

London MPs have personally pressed Burnham to refocus, warning that Labour HQ was getting caught out by obsessing over Reform and the Greens — and noting the Tories have overtaken Reform into second place in some polls. Transport secretary Heidi Alexander, chief secretary Emma Reynolds and Europe minister Hamish Falconer all hold Tory-facing seats, while Labour MPs across Hertfordshire, Kent and parts of London, including Finchley and Harrow, could also be at risk. One minister with a slim majority said they had been raising the alarm inside government for a while.

Tactics under discussion include talking up a Tory-Reform pact, on the calculation that voters only return to the Tories in earnest if they look capable of winning a majority — and stay Labour if they fear Farage getting near power. Labour is understood to be preparing to devote more resources to taking on the Tories from January, in the run-up to next May's elections. More in Common director Luke Tryl backed the widening of focus, saying Labour now has two fronts on its right flank, and that Reform can squeeze the Conservatives but only so far.