Burnham braces for Labour welfare revolt as Milburn targets young claimants

Andy Burnham is staring down another Labour welfare row, and the fuse is Alan Milburn's review. Due next week, the former New Labour cabinet minister's recommendations will include cutting benefits for some 16 to 24 year olds who receive personal independence payment, or the enhanced health-related element of Universal Credit. Milburn confirmed the plan in an interview with the Times after a year spent working out how to shrink the nearly one million young people not in employment, education or training.

The last time Labour MPs were asked to swallow welfare cuts, the party nearly split. Sir Keir Starmer's authority took a beating when 120 of his own MPs — more than a quarter — threatened to derail his reforms, and he had to promise existing Pip claimants in England and Wales would not lose out. Even with that guarantee, 49 of the 120 rebels still voted against the government.

This time the mood is quieter, BBC soundings suggest. Two organisers of last year's revolt are now on the government's side: Louise Haigh, the most powerful cabinet minister after Burnham, and chief whip Anneliese Midgeley. Meg Hillier, who fronted the rebellion, says she wants to give Milburn's proposals a fair wind. The structure has changed too — Milburn proposes upfront investment in jobs and training for young people with net savings likely set over around a decade, and the cuts are limited to the under-25s, roughly 11% of Pip claimants.

Ministers who privately worried about Rachel Reeves and Liz Kendall's earlier plans are on board now, according to the BBC. One told the outlet MPs would be fine with some cuts provided young people get guaranteed jobs and training, so long as those who genuinely cannot work are not left worse off. Milburn is expected to float enhanced payments for that group, plus an extra allowance for some disabled youngsters who lose Pip. Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden has been walking MPs through the principles.

Not everyone is convinced. York MP Rachael Maskell, one of last year's rebels, told the BBC she wants the detail instead of a drip, drip of press reports that would cause young people stress and distress, calling the withdrawal of Pip from young people like a sledgehammer to crack a nut. Stroud MP Simon Opher, also a previous rebel, called the Neet crisis real and Milburn's solution credible, but said cutting benefits should be a last resort — and warned a quarter of young claimants are not Neet. Clapham and Brixton Hill MP Bell Ribiero-Addy said she was not sure she could back cuts, arguing you do not get a disabled young person into work by taking away the money that helps them get there. Brian Leishman said he could not back cuts during a cost of living crisis.

One thing is already settled: if Burnham accepts Milburn's recommendations, a rebellion is guaranteed. The open question is size. It looks unlikely to match the scale — or the political jeopardy — of the one that shook Starmer.