Bukele Sends 2,500 Troops Into Haiti, Analysts Call It an Election Play

El Salvador's troops are shelling gang targets in Haiti, and President Nayib Bukele is selling every strike as a win. On Tuesday he posted "We kept our promise" alongside footage of Salvadoran forces bombing a gang leader's home — after he'd publicly asked for the coordinates on X. "Most of them ran away without even trying to fight," he wrote. "What cowards!" The operation kicked off in mid-October, when four Salvadoran aviation technicians working with a U.N.-backed mission went missing in a gang attack.

Since then, El Salvador has poured 2,500 soldiers into Haiti with little transparency or oversight, according to the Los Angeles Times. A gang leader has claimed the four missing technicians are dead. Faced with that, plus mounting international scrutiny, Bukele's pitch has moved from rescuing his own people to eradicating Haiti's gangs entirely — packaged in slick, cinematic videos that pro-government influencers amplify in Creole, English and Spanish.

Not everyone is cheering. Dominican President Luis Abinader said Tuesday his country is giving El Salvador logistical and intelligence support, and urged the U.N.-backed force to coordinate with Salvadoran troops. Washington kept its distance: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday the U.S. is "not actively involved" and threw his backing behind the U.N.-backed force El Salvador isn't part of, adding, "There is no plan B." Amnesty International demands both governments publish the agreement that let the troops in and comply with international human rights law, warning civilians could pay the price.

The clock explains the noise. February's presidential election is coming, and Bukele is all but certain to win it — polling puts his approval above 90%. Critics say the Haiti show is campaign theater built to remind voters of his security record. "It's an electoral campaign to promote Nayib Bukele and portray him as if he's a superhero. They're selling an Avengers movie," said Salvadoran communications strategist Roberto Dubon. Security consultant Luis Enrique Amaya put it bluntly: Bukele "won't allow even a centimeter of his popularity and legitimacy to be lost."

Copying the home recipe abroad won't be easy. Bukele crushed El Salvador's two big gangs by suspending constitutional rights and jailing more than 1% of the population — a crackdown El Faro has reported also involved negotiations with the gangs. Haiti is messier: roughly two dozen known gangs run Port-au-Prince, dozens more strike outside it, and they're better armed with weapons smuggled mainly from the U.S. and tangled up with political elites. Diego Da Rin of the International Crisis Group warned the offensive could push rival gangs to unite, and said the push for "quick, symbolic victories entails huge risks for civilians who can be caught in the crossfire."

Then there's the bill and the ballot box at home. Bukele's government says it's footing the cost of the Haiti operation, a price tag analyst Tiziano Breda of Armed Conflict Location & Event Data says could stir resentment in a country where one in four people live in poverty — likely pushing Bukele toward quick shows of force rather than a long war. Democratic worries already hang over the vote: Bukele's party-controlled legislature moved the election up to 2027 from 2029 and erased presidential term limits from the constitution.