Bitcoin Has 50 Days to Dodge Its First Back-to-Back Losing Years

Bitcoin finished 2025 down 6.34% and has shed another 15.65% so far in 2026, trading near $73,850 on November 10. If it can't climb back above its 2026 opening price of roughly $87,500 before December 31, it will close two calendar years in the red for the first time in its 18-year history.

The math is unforgiving. From $73,850, Bitcoin needs to gain about 18.5% to finish 2026 in positive territory, and it has 50 days left to do it. A third straight losing year in 2027 would stretch the streak further, but that's still hypothetical.

The streak sounds worse than it has felt. Bitcoin plunged 73.56% in 2018 and another 64.27% in 2022 — each a single-year wipeout. Stack 2025's 6.34% decline on top of this year's roughly 16%, and the combined loss comes to about 21% after compounding.

Measuring from the top tells a harsher story. Bitcoin hit approximately $126,000 in October 2025, then crashed below $58,000 during 2026, a decline exceeding 50% — far deeper than the two annual candlesticks suggest.

Analysts point to Bitcoin's growing institutional investor base, spot exchange-traded funds and deeper market liquidity as explanations for the comparatively smaller bear-market drawdowns, though those shifts haven't eliminated major crashes. History offers a counterweight too: Bitcoin gained roughly 92% in 2019 after its 2018 collapse and surged more than 155% in 2023 after its 2022 disaster. Anyone who bought at the start of 2024, a year that delivered gains above 120%, is still sitting on substantial profits.