Australia and Philippines to sign defence pact as China tensions boil

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will sign a major defence cooperation agreement with senior Philippines officials on Sunday, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila. The deal is expected to widen reciprocal military access and information sharing between the two countries, and to bolster the Philippine Navy and coastguard. It lands as tensions keep flaring between the Philippines and China over control of the South China Sea.

The pact fits into an informal four-nation defence bloc — Australia, the United States, the Philippines and Japan, nicknamed 'the Squad' — that is pushing to strengthen the Philippines' defensive capability and run more military exercises to counter China's maritime influence in the South and East China seas. The group's defence ministers met in Cebu on October 28, and on Tuesday revealed plans for a Combined Coordination Centre, likely a joint hub for building up the country's navy and coastguard.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea through its 'nine-dash line', a claim a Hague tribunal ruled a decade ago had no legal basis under international maritime law. Beijing rejected that ruling and has built artificial islands hosting military bases, including inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and in the contested Spratly Islands. Coast guard clashes are frequent around the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal, with China accused of 'grey zone' tactics such as water cannoning and maritime harassment. Philippines Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro called China's behaviour 'irresponsible, escalatory and provocative', saying its nine-dash line is 'the biggest threat to regional stability and peace'.

Australia has already been ramping up support. Since April last year it has given more than $13 million to the Philippine Coast Guard, mostly drones and drone operator training, helping Manila monitor Chinese naval and coastguard vessels, protect subsea cables, watch for illegal fishing and track Chinese military drones. It has also helped build defence infrastructure across five Philippine military bases on Luzon. David Dutton of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute wrote this week that the Philippines had 'become pivotal for Canberra's regional balancing and deterrence objectives', calling the new agreement a 'milestone in the transformation of the relationship into a genuinely strategic partnership'. Maritime security expert Jennifer Parker said it would 'bundle up the package of things [Australia] has already been doing', focused on interoperability, and she hoped for enhanced information sharing.

The diplomacy has turned sharp. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr accused China's ambassador to Manila, Jing Quan, of making a threat after Quan said Beijing could 'easily win' a conflict with the Philippines. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro summoned the ambassador, who denied being threatening. China's foreign ministry said Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lazaro by phone last week that 'a handful of Philippine politicians, driven by political bias and selfish gains, have repeatedly attacked and smeared China', and urged restraint. Australia has drawn its own rebukes from Beijing, including after Foreign Minister Penny Wong voiced concern about 'aggression' and 'destabilising conduct' in July — prompting a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson to urge countries to stop 'exaggerating tensions and inciting confrontation'.

South-East Asian leaders hold high-level talks from Sunday at the ASEAN summit, with the South China Sea set to dominate. ASEAN nations and China have been negotiating a code of conduct for more than eight years, and Philippine officials say they can't confirm whether it will be finalised by the end of this year's summit. The Institute for the Study of War has analysed what it calls a 'rare' coordination of China's geographical naval commands, in a deployment that 'suggests the People's Liberation Army is conducting a major exercise that simulates isolating Taiwan'. Parker pointed to the strain on US forces as naval resources shift to the Middle East. 'You are seeing China seek to take advantage, I would say, of the lack of US assets in the region,' she said.