Anthropic's IPO could hand Amazon and Google a $411 billion windfall

Anthropic expects to price its IPO on November 18 and begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on November 19, with a range of $70 to $78 a share. If it prices at the top, Amazon and Alphabet's combined stakes would be worth $411 billion, according to a Reuters calculation. That figure measures total stake value at the IPO price, not profit, and neither company has commented on it.

Amazon's position comes to $271.8 billion against $18.0 billion invested. Google's is worth $139 billion against $33.3 billion, a figure that includes roughly $10.0 billion Google is putting into the IPO placement itself. At Tuesday's close, Amazon's stake equaled about 9.3% of its market value, versus about 3.9% for Alphabet — a gap that makes the IPO price matter far more to Amazon's sum-of-the-parts story.

The mechanics differ too. Amazon will hold 1,920,511,218 non-voting Class N shares after the offering, worth about $149.8 billion at $78. Another 1,563,617,444 shares, worth about $122.0 billion, arrive later because its notes bar Amazon from holding more than 12% of Anthropic's capitalization. Those notes had about $6.2 billion outstanding at September 30 and convert at fixed prices of roughly $2.09 and $5.05 per share.

Both companies fund Anthropic and sell it computing power. AWS revenue climbed 39% to $45.98 billion, while Google Cloud revenue jumped 103% to $30.71 billion — growth that partly leans on one AI customer staying well funded. Google's 2026 agreement carries its own 14.99% cap, and the Class N shares hand neither company control.

Most existing holders face lock-ups of up to 180 days, while certain holders of more than 0.5% of fully diluted shares are locked up for up to 365 days. Google's placement shares carry no lock-up, though they are restricted securities resellable only under a registration statement or an exemption. Bankers reportedly expect the deal to price above the range, toward a $1.5 trillion valuation, which one outside estimate puts at roughly $83 a share — math that gives about $436 billion combined.

Once Anthropic trades publicly, both companies will mark their stakes to market, swinging reported earnings every quarter. Amazon offers the more direct exposure: a bigger piece bought cheaper, plus AWS growth that accelerated for a sixth straight quarter, with management projecting above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. But it trades near 38 times earnings and posted a trailing free cash outflow of $42.4 billion as it builds AI capacity, while Alphabet sits at about 13 times earnings with a faster-growing cloud.