UK energy bills could jump £460 as superpowers battle over power

British households are staring down another brutal energy bill hike. Forecasts from British Gas, EDF and E.ON point to a January rise of more than a quarter — roughly £460 extra a year for a typical home. The trigger landed in February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz and oil and gas prices took off. Europe's winter gas stores are now at their lowest since records began in 2011, just as demand climbs.

This week world leaders meet in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31, and the agenda is really a fight between two superpowers. America is betting on molecules, pumping record volumes of oil and gas and pressing allies to buy them. China is betting on electrons, flooding the world with the solar panels, batteries and electric cars that replace those fuels. Britain sits in the squeeze: it already buys nearly a quarter of its imported gas from the US and much of its clean energy kit from China.

The UK's own fork in the road showed up on the Moray Firth. Ming Yang, one of China's biggest turbine makers, wanted to revive the Whiteness Head yard near Inverness with a £1.5bn factory and up to 1,500 initial jobs. In March, after US lawmakers urged ministers to block it, they did, citing national security. Last month they said yes to the Jackdaw gas field instead. Donald Trump celebrated on Truth Social hours later: 'They should go FULL BLAST!!! TAKE DOWN THE COSTLY AND RIDICULOUS WINDMILLS!'

A bigger test looms west of Shetland. Rosebank, the UK's largest undeveloped oil field, is about seven times more emissive than Jackdaw and mostly oil, and it has reportedly split the cabinet. A decision is expected within weeks. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch told the prime minister to 'stop faffing about' and approve it, calling drilling 'the only way we can protect families from rising bills'. Reform UK's Richard Tice agrees: 'If we use our own gas… that will bring our bills down.'

Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh is not buying it. Asked whether more British oil and gas would cut bills, she said flatly: 'No, it doesn't. In the end, the oil and gas is sold on global markets.' She told the BBC her 'overriding objective, without a doubt' is affordability, and that Britain is 'far too exposed to global markets we have no control over' — with homegrown clean energy as the fix. Uplift's Tessa Khan goes further, saying Rosebank 'doesn't really do anything for energy security' and sends 'a very dangerous signal' about the UK's climate seriousness.

The reserves tell their own story. North Sea output has dropped by more than two-thirds since its 1999 peak, and the Office for Budget Responsibility expects roughly 10% annual declines even if Rosebank goes ahead. Jackdaw holds only a few months of UK gas demand; Rosebank less than a year of the country's oil. The government has also introduced a bill to enshrine a ban on new exploration licences in law — Rosebank, already licensed, would slip through. Meanwhile its climate advisers calculate a 2022-style price shock would lift bills 59% on a high-carbon path versus just 4% on renewables, even as Ørsted scrapped its Hornsea 4 wind farm over supply chain costs.