SpaceX's $1.75T IPO buzz can't lift SPCX past its chart's ceiling

SPCX is stuck. The Binance Futures contract last changed hands at $135.90, up 0.42% on the day, after swinging between $133.45 and $138.32 over 24 hours on $260.5 million of volume. It also sits a single cent off its pivot point of $135.89 — a twitchy, neutral setup rather than a clean trend break.

The moving averages split the story. Price is just above the 7-day SMA at $134.34, but it's below the 12-day EMA at $137.04, the 20-day SMA at $141.00 and the 50-day SMA at $149.53. Read that as: the intraday slide has steadied, but the broader trend keeps leaning lower until the $137 to $141 band is reclaimed.

Momentum agrees. RSI sits at 43.25, MACD is negative at -4.8098 with a flat 0.0000 histogram, and stochastic %K and %D read 49.16 and 39.33 — mid-range, with no exhausted oversold bounce in sight. ATR(14) of $6.51 warns the contract can still lurch far enough to erase a tight thesis.

Positioning is lopsided; the order flow isn't. Funding is neutral at 0.0042% and open interest sits at 3.66 million contracts worth $494.1 million, up 0.45% in 24 hours. Binance global accounts were 73.2% long versus 26.8% short at 2026-11-09 11:00 UTC, and top-trader accounts leaned harder at 78.0% long versus 22.0% short. Yet the 1-hour taker buy/sell ratio of 0.8776 shows aggressive sellers still meeting that long crowd. On levels: resistance at $138.33, then $140.76, then $141.00 where the 20-day average and Bollinger middle band converge. Support at $133.46, then $131.02, with the lower Bollinger band at $126.00 as the next reference if the floor cracks.

The fundamental noise is much louder than the chart. Reuters reported SpaceX is chasing a $1.75 trillion valuation, with Starlink profitable and responsible for roughly 50% to 80% of revenue, in an all-primary deal that leaves Elon Musk holding 85.1% of combined voting power. Bloomberg said on Nov 6, 2026 that US government-funded contracts should fall below 10% of revenue this quarter, down from 16.6% in the most recent one. Reuters also noted SpaceX's 2025 run of 165 launches.