Trump bump fuels $1.5T US M&A rush as SpaceX swallows xAI for $250B

Trump's return to the White House has lit a fire under corporate dealmaking, and the numbers are enormous. U.S.-targeted announced deals hit $1.5 trillion in the first half of 2026, according to Bloomberg Markets. The marquee move: SpaceX buying xAI for $250 billion, a tie-up that instantly reshaped the landscape of American mega-deals.

The surge has traders gaming out the next blockbuster — a Tesla and SpaceX merger. Prediction markets put the odds of a formal announcement by December 31 at just 9% YES. But stretch the timeline to January 1, 2028, and the same market prices it at 66.5% YES. Same companies, wildly different confidence depending on how far out you look.

A Trump-era appetite for consolidation fits neatly with the merger chatter, though the path isn't clear. Borrowing costs and macroeconomic uncertainty still weigh on any boardroom decision. And nothing about a Tesla-SpaceX combination would be small, simple or quick to get past regulators.

For now, the market is hunting for signals. Statements from Elon Musk, formal filings from either company, or movement in board seats could all jolt the odds. A real announcement would likely send pricing swinging hard, given how much is riding on the possibility.

Watch the macroeconomic backdrop too. Shifts in borrowing costs or the regulatory landscape could change the math on whether such a merger ever becomes feasible. Until then, the market keeps a long-dated bet on the table and a short-dated shrug.