NY Fed survey: Americans' job-market gloom hits highest since April 2020

Americans are getting jittery about the job market. The New York Fed's October Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday, found households putting the odds of a higher unemployment rate a year from now at the highest reading since April 2020 — the chaotic early stretch of the pandemic.

The anxiety runs past the headline number. Respondents said they saw a bigger chance of involuntarily losing a job, though that expectation stayed at relatively low levels. They also rated their odds of finding new work after a layoff as better than they did in September.

The hard data isn't matching the mood. Friday's government report showed employers added 165,000 jobs in October, with the jobless rate at 4.1% and recent hiring figures revised upward. Fed officials have taken to describing the current labor market as low-hire, low-fire.

Inflation expectations held steady at levels still well above the Fed's 2% target: 3.9% a year out, 3.3% in three years and 3% in five years, all matching September's readings. Households expected a more moderate rise in commodity prices a year from now than they did the month before.

Households felt slightly better about their current finances than in September, while their year-ahead financial outlook was unchanged, as was their view on access to credit now and later. The survey ran through October as voters headed to midterm elections that delivered broad Democratic gains, including control of both chambers of Congress, amid sour national sentiment over inflation driven by President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and the Middle East war. Fed policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates at their early December meeting.

The New York Fed report is watched most closely for what it says about the inflation outlook, and that outlook has now sat unchanged for two straight months.