StoneX starts Bullish at Buy, sees 97% upside as Equiniti deal nears

StoneX analyst Mark Palmer launched coverage of Bullish on Monday with a Buy rating and a $42 target, roughly 97% above where shares traded in early morning action. The stock was up 2.9% on the day, sitting above $22, though it has shed close to half its value over the past six months.

The thesis hinges on Equiniti. Palmer argues the $4.2 billion acquisition hands Bullish a transfer agency serving nearly 3,000 issuers, 15,000 corporate clients and 20 million shareholders once it closes. "Every big market structure shift needs a toll booth, and BLSH is buying one," Palmer wrote, adding that Bullish would then own the transfer agent of record for about 30% of the S&P 500 and half the FTSE 100.

The price tag breaks down into $1.85 billion in assumed debt and roughly $2.35 billion paid in Bullish shares. Equiniti already moves $500 billion in annual payments, according to the note.

Palmer sees a lot of room to grow in tokenization. Tokenized equities sit at about $2.1 billion onchain against $151 trillion in global equity value, while the wider tokenized asset market could hit $9.4 trillion by 2030 under projections cited in the note.

The existing business is no slouch either. Bullish's second-quarter adjusted revenue climbed 62% year over year to $92.6 million, with subscription, services and other revenue hitting a record $62.7 million.

StoneX flagged real risks: the Equiniti deal falling apart or getting delayed, slower tokenization adoption, and competition from Nasdaq, DTCC, NYSE, Securitize and Superstate. Meanwhile Bullish has named former New York Stock Exchange President Stacey Cunningham as its president, as it waits on regulatory approval and pushes its issuer-sponsored tokenization business across Solana, Aptos and Ethereum.