Bitcoin's $71.9K line is the tripwire for a slide to $65K, Hilbert CIO warns

Hilbert Group chief investment officer Russell Thompson has drawn a line under Bitcoin at $71,900. Lose that trend line, he said in comments shared with crypto.news on Nov. 9, and $65,000 becomes a live target. The coin traded around $74,200 when he made the call, putting the tripwire roughly 3.1% below and the deeper level 12.4% down. Above it, he maps initial support at $72,800, near the middle of April's breakout range, then moving average support at $72,700, then the trend line itself. He expects buyers below the current price, but says the obvious $70,000 round number offers little technical backing beyond psychology.

The trigger wouldn't come from crypto itself. Thompson flagged funding stress at smaller AI and semiconductor companies, warning that losses there could bleed across portfolios and force margin calls. Sell what's easy, he explained. “If you start getting margin calls, then you start selling bits of your portfolio that are not particularly core, and that usually means Bitcoin.” He described “blood in the water” around the AI trade.

The market has already wobbled. Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 on Nov. 5, helped by $74.6 million in U.S. spot ETF inflows the previous session and heavy short liquidations. By Nov. 6 it was back near $76,000 after technology-stock losses and $430.2 million in ETF withdrawals during Thursday's session. Thompson pegged last week's Bitcoin ETF outflows at $1.2 billion; separate Nov. 8 market coverage of Nov. 2–6 recorded $1.28 billion, citing Farside Investors.

Derivatives traders are paying up for protection. Five-delta put implied volatility sat at 51 against 38 for at-the-money options — a 13-point premium — while comparable calls carried just a one-point premium, according to Thompson. Hilbert's five-factor global liquidity model has slipped to 2.61, down 0.62 points from 3.23 on Nov. 2. Its six-factor gauge sits at 3.02, lower by 0.25 points. Thompson treats readings below one as crisis liquidity and above nine as abundant.

Macro isn't helping. Stronger U.S. employment and wage data put the December Fed meeting in play, Thompson said, citing market pricing of a 77% probability of a rate hike and two hikes as the favored outcome. He counters that inflation expectations look well anchored and breakeven rates are lower. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October CPI on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, after September's headline print of 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annual, with core at 0.3% and 2.6%.

Thompson still sees a route back. He traces Bitcoin's earlier peak to money rotating out of crypto into chips, AI and tech stocks, and thinks some of it returns once forced selling runs its course. “Once this period of deleveraging passes and markets calm down, I think some of that capital is likely to flow back.” He hasn't ruled out a Bitcoin breakout before year-end, though he expects rough trading first.