Florida GOP Survives the Blue Wave, but Its Tallahassee Grip Loosens

Florida Republicans held the line Tuesday — barely. Congressman Byron Donalds beat Democrat David Jolly for governor by a little over 1 percentage point, and Ashley Moody took a U.S. Senate seat over Angie Nixon by less than 3 points. Both GOP winners, plus three Republicans who hung onto cabinet posts in similarly tight races, had raised far more cash than their Democratic rivals.

Donalds, a Trump-endorsed congressman from southwest Florida's 19th district, made history as Florida's first Black governor and the first Black Republican governor anywhere in the country. He told cheering supporters that Florida had delivered a message: the state is still red.

The wins came against a national repudiation of the GOP, and the down-ballot picture told a rougher story. Democrats defended four congressional districts that Republicans had redrawn this spring to favor themselves under a plan pushed by term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP Legislature. Winning Democrats included Rep. Darren Soto, whose central Florida district was stretched south to Lake Okeechobee to soak up conservative voters.

Susannah Randolph, who directs the Sierra Club's Florida chapter, called that redistricting effort a bust. Democrats also gained ground in the Legislature, where Republicans kept their Senate and House majorities but surrendered supermajorities in both, according to Aubrey Jewett, associate director of the University of Central Florida's School of Politics, Security and International Affairs. Jewett said the shift hands Democrats more sway as bills take shape, even as Republicans remain firmly in charge.

Jewett said the near-misses sting for Democrats — but he added that coming so close despite a 1.5-million-voter registration gap and being badly outspent gives the party something to build on. Randolph agreed, saying the results suggest Florida could be a swing state again. The state had picked six straight presidential winners from Bill Clinton in 1996 to Trump in 2016.

Climate stayed in the frame. DeSantis spent his tenure dismissing climate change's role in fiercer hurricanes and flooding and focusing environmental policy on the Everglades and water quality instead. Heavy rain and flooding forced some polling places to close early this week, and Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists said the disruption showed just how urgent the issue is in Florida.