Iran waves India, China, Qatar and Iraq ships through the Strait of Hormuz

Ships from India, China, Iraq and Qatar can now sail the Strait of Hormuz without restriction, according to a senior Iranian lawmaker. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the Iranian Students' News Agency that vessels from those countries pass freely and that US forces don't intercept them either. Iran effectively shut the strait early in the US-Israel war on Iran that began February 28, and the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports in July.

What Tehran gets in return is a mixed bag. According to Hayat Moqaddam, India supplies medicine Iran can't manufacture itself, China offers political backing, and Qatar — already leading mediation to end the war — brings diplomatic support. Indian and Chinese ships will pay transit fees, while Qatari vessels sail toll-free; he didn't say whether Iraq pays anything.

Analysts read it as a calculated squeeze play. Wolfgang Pusztai, Austria's former defence attache to Libya, told Al Jazeera the move is clever and could generate serious revenue, since China buys nearly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. Nader Hashemi of Georgetown University said Iran is most likely charging a transit fee or a percentage of cargo value to wave ships through unharassed. Rouzbeh Parsi of Lund University framed it as poking holes in an embargo to move crucial goods and services in and out.

The stakes ride on Gulf crude. Of the 10.23 million barrels a day that passed through the strait in October, about 42 percent went to China and 13 percent to India, Kpler's Muyu Xu told Al Jazeera. Qatar pushed no LNG through the strait in August but managed 1.8 million tonnes in October, while its crude transits slipped to 193,000 barrels a day, down from 517,000 in August. Iraq's crude flows climbed from 1.69 million barrels a day, now at 2.65 million, and Kpler can't trace the origin of up to two million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, so real numbers may run higher.

An exemption hasn't bought safety. On October 30, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was hit by unidentified objects in the Gulf, according to its owner, Qatar Gas Transport Company. More than 120 commercial ships have been struck in the region since the war began, with October the worst month, per data from the International Maritime Organization and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

Washington still calls the shots. US Central Command says the blockade covers all vessels of all nations entering or leaving Iranian coastal areas or ports, while ships avoiding Iranian ports are unaffected, and humanitarian shipments can pass after inspection. Pusztai warned the carve-out could make the blockade harder to sustain if Washington accepts it, and noted it's unclear whether 'ships of these countries' means the flag flown, the owner or the operator. Ending the blockade is one of Tehran's demands before broader peace talks; Qatar-mediated negotiations center on an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait if the US meets seven conditions. IG Group's Chris Beauchamp told Al Jazeera the exemptions make only a limited difference for now, with markets still focused on the prospect of a wider deal.