Brent Crude Logs Steepest Weekly Slide Since Covid, Gasoline Nears $4

Brent crude settled at $96.67 a barrel, down 1.7% on the day, after bleeding 16% over the week. That marks the sharpest weekly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic kicked off. Meanwhile, U.S. drivers are catching a break: gasoline is averaging roughly $4.01 a gallon and flirting with a dip below $4.

The selloff has a diplomatic trigger. Talks involving Iran have cooled fears that supply could get choked off, though threats around the Strait of Hormuz haven't disappeared. Traders are pricing in less risk of a sudden barrel shock — and the price action shows it.

Prediction-market data backs up the shift in mood. The December 31 sub-market on crude hitting a new all-time high is now priced at 5.5% YES. That's down from 8% just 24 hours earlier and 16% a week ago — a rapid repricing of how likely an oil spike looks before the year closes.

Next up on the radar: OPEC's production decisions and any fresh headline out of Iran or the Strait of Hormuz, either of which could jolt supply expectations. Further slippage in U.S. pump prices or updated global demand forecasts would add to the pressure on crude.

The market's posture is cautious. Pricing suggests traders see few obvious catalysts on the table right now that could flip the current trajectory.