US CapEx Goes Vertical: Shipments Hit Record $86B on AI Spending

US businesses are spending on equipment like it's 2021. The value of nondefense capital goods shipments — aircraft stripped out — climbed 11.6% year over year in September, hitting a record $86 billion, per Kobeissi Letter. That's the fastest annual growth rate since July 2021.

The short-term trend is even hotter. Shipments have run at a 3-month annualized rate of 16.5%, the strongest clip since 2011 once you set aside the pandemic rebound. Since October 2024, the total has climbed by $12 billion.

The engine behind the surge is AI. Orders for computers, servers, storage devices and related gear have rocketed 27% year over year — the biggest annual jump since January 1997, according to the outlet. Kobeissi Letter's verdict: the AI infrastructure buildout is 'beyond massive.'

Capital goods shipments are a closely watched gauge of business investment, since they track the machinery, tech and heavy equipment companies actually take delivery of rather than just order. A record reading suggests firms aren't waiting around on the sidelines.

The number to watch now is whether that 16.5% annualized pace holds. For the moment, the data says corporate America is writing big checks — and a lot of them are headed straight into AI racks.