UK pegs AI's 2030 boost at £120bn, not the £400bn it credits to Google

The numbers landed in a written parliamentary answer on 26 October from Kanishka Narayan, who became the UK's first cabinet-level AI minister in July. He said AI adoption and data investment could add 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points to UK productivity growth. In cash terms, that works out to £55bn to £140bn added to UK gross value added in 2030, with £120bn as the central estimate.

The £400bn figure has been floating around since July 2023, when Google published an economic impact report from consultancy Public First claiming AI could create over £400bn in value for the UK by 2030, provided conditions were right. Narayan confirmed the government's earlier claim traced back to that Google-commissioned report, and that ministers have since run their own assessment. His answer didn't withdraw the £400bn number — it just parked the lower one next to it.

Dr Ben Spencer, the Conservative shadow AI minister, asked what evidence actually sat behind the £400bn in the AI Opportunities Action Plan. According to WIRED's Ben Gartside, this is the first time on record the government has put the two figures side by side, and the first time it has said Google commissioned the report.

The lower range comes from the government's own model, set out by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology in an explainer for its AI Skills Boost. It runs three scenarios — slow, medium and rapid adoption — built on OECD productivity estimates. Tech investor Matt Clifford wrote the action plan, which the government published in January 2025.

Public First, now trading as PF Global, told WIRED its 2023 model assumed faster adoption than the government now expects, and that its current central estimate for 2030 sits much closer to the government's figure, with more growth after that. The firm said it made its own judgements in that research. WIRED also found Skills England was still publishing the £400bn figure months after ministers had the lower one in hand.

Not everyone is letting it slide. Conservative peer Lord Holmes of Richmond told WIRED he asked ministers where the figure came from back in January 2025 and got no reply. Dame Chi Onwurah, who chairs the Commons science and technology committee, said overstating what technology can deliver risks undermining the case for change, while Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute wants independent experts testing forecasts like these and the government measuring the gains it promises. Spencer kept pushing too: on 4 November, Narayan answered a follow-up from him by pointing back to an earlier answer on AI skills. The same week, Narayan warned a serious cyber breach in the UK is extremely likely.