Trump's Russian Diesel Deal Sinks at Sea as Tankers Steer Away From US

Donald Trump's diesel deal with Vladimir Putin is springing leaks. Three tankers left Russia headed for the US under the arrangement, but their routes are now telling a different story, according to the Financial Times. The Maltese-flagged Agioi Fanendes, carrying 40,000 metric tons of diesel, is the last one still pointed at the American coast — and its destination is simply listed as awaiting orders. Its last position came in on October 28.

The other two have already bailed. The Talisman, under sanctions from the EU, UK and US, left the St. Petersburg area on October 22, slipped through the English Channel, then hooked south past the Bay of Biscay and Portugal into the Mediterranean. The Leruo, also sanctioned, is still crossing the Atlantic but now lists Brazil as its destination.

The Kremlin isn't buying the report. Envoy and negotiator Kirill Dmitriev insisted on X that tankers bound for the US are still on course, calling the FT story fake. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stayed vaguer, calling the shipments a commercial matter he couldn't discuss publicly. All diesel will find its buyers, he said. Trump met Dmitriev at the White House on Thursday and told reporters nothing about what they discussed.

Trump announced the deal on October 9 as fuel prices and living costs squeezed Americans, promising it would lower prices for farmers, ranchers and truckers. Treasury issued a rule letting US companies buy and import Russian diesel despite sanctions, and Moscow lifted its own export ban in return. The timing was no accident — it landed just before the November 3 midterms, which still delivered a Democratic landslide.

Analysts see several reasons for the U-turn. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill has threatened ports taking Russian diesel with legal action and millions in fines, and the Agioi Fanendes was originally headed for a port partly under her jurisdiction. European sanctions also bite as soon as an insurer or bank touches the cargo. Maritime specialist Kevin Rowlands told FRANCE 24 that with Trump weakened after the midterms, the risk of tankers being seized in US ports spiked — and that would be unacceptable to the Kremlin.

Others suspect the whole voyage was theatre. Dirk Siebels of Risk Intelligence suggested the ships may never have intended to reach America at all, and that the point was purely political — sending a market signal before the vote. Kpler analyst Matt Smith expects the Agioi Fanendes to sell its cargo elsewhere, just like the other two. If that happens, Rowlands said, the diesel deal is dead for all practical purposes.