Trump's Economy-First Coalition Crumbles as Democrats Sweep Midterms

Democrats bulldozed through Tuesday's midterms, flipping battleground congressional seats and Republican governorships that had been held for years. The wave hands the party both the House and Senate, ending the GOP's trifecta of power in Washington. The force behind it wasn't a scandal or a single gaffe — it was the price of groceries, gas and everything in between.

The CNBC Voter Poll, built on roughly 100,000 interviews with a 0.6% margin of error, points straight at the White House. Nearly nine in 10 voters called the cost of living a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote, and three in four rated the economy "poor" or "not so good." Just 2% called it "excellent." Fewer than one in five said their family was financially better off than two years ago, and about two in three said Trump's policies worsened economic conditions.

The vote played out against an unpopular war with Iran that made everything costlier. U.S. drivers paid about $4.15 for a gallon of gas on Tuesday — the highest of any midterm or presidential election day since at least 2000, according to AAA — with prices up roughly 37% over the past year as the Middle East conflict crippled the global crude trade. Nearly three in four voters told the poll the war was a crucial or major factor in their choice. Trump told Fox News voters were probably unhappy with the gas spike even if they backed military action; Vice President JD Vance said on social media that some 2024 Trump voters likely went Democratic over the war.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi calculated that higher gas and energy costs have run the average household nearly $1,230 since the war began, with climbing borrowing costs and expanded military services tacking on more than $900 more. The consumer price index has reaccelerated, diesel prices hit records that transportation executives described as feeling "like science fiction," and wage gains have trailed price increases. The University of Michigan's sentiment survey fell in 2026 to its worst reading in seven decades, while the Conference Board's confidence gauge slid in September to a 14-year low.

Even before the war, Trump's tariffs had rattled markets and raised recession fears. Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve said several consumer prices would have fallen without them, and many were later struck down by the Supreme Court. In the poll, 64% said the tariffs hurt the economy in their area, while only 14% said they helped. Immigration enforcement weighed too: mass deportations drew large-scale protests and the deaths of two U.S. citizens by federal agents, and a University of Pennsylvania study found cities hit by enforcement surges lost billions in consumer spending. About three in five voters disapproved of how ICE handled its job and said the administration went too far — though voters still said Republicans were better at handling immigration.

Not everything landed badly. The IRS said in October that the average tax refund grew by 11% after Trump's "big beautiful bill" passed, and so-called Trump Accounts let parents tap government and donor funds to build nest eggs for kids. But affordability ruled the ballot box. In 2024, more voters trusted Trump on the economy than Kamala Harris; this week, they picked Democrats. Georgetown professor Francesco D'Acunto said inflation pushed voters to a "breaking point," and Zandi had a message for whoever's listening: seven in 10 poll respondents said the economic system favors the wealthy, and another election is only two years out. "Hopefully, policymakers are listening to all this," he said.