Brookings warns Moscow and Beijing could go bold if Trump looks like a lame duck

Russia and China could get much bolder in the next two years if they decide President Donald Trump is politically weakened and on his way out, Brookings Institution senior fellow Robert Kagan told CNBC's Squawk Box Asia. His trigger: Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress. Kagan said both Moscow and Beijing may conclude that now is the moment to move.

The Iran war, in Kagan's telling, has made Washington look shaky in ways that matter far from the Middle East. He pointed to depleted American stockpiles of interceptors and missiles, weapons he called vital for the Asian theater. Congressional Budget Office reports estimate the conflict has burned through as much as two-thirds of U.S. missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, largely because of efforts to shield Israel from Iranian attacks, and inventories could stay tight for years.

Firepower isn't the only thing stretched. Kagan said sending three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East has thinned the naval presence available in Asia, possibly handing China more room to act assertively. He argued Trump's real focus is cutting economic deals with Beijing rather than confronting it, and that this stance will only push China to be more aggressive.

Taiwan sits right at the center of that calculation. In December, Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for the island, then held back on a second package worth roughly $14 billion, describing it as a bargaining chip in talks with China. Beijing claims self-governing Taiwan as its own territory. Washington has no mutual defense treaty with Taipei, though U.S. law requires it to supply Taiwan with the means to defend itself. Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered the military to be ready to invade by 2027, while stressing that no decision to actually invade had been made.

Kagan's comments landed as Washington, Beijing and Moscow hash out a possible three-way summit between Trump, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders' meeting in Shenzhen later this month. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday that Beijing is in communication with relevant parties about a meeting of the three heads of state, though no agenda has been announced. Putin reportedly floated the idea back in October as a way to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left out of the room.

What comes next hinges on how Trump's standing reads from abroad. Kagan's warning is blunt: if it looks like Trump is on his way out and the U.S. is returning to something closer to normal, Russia and China may feel the window to act is now.