Trump Claims Credit for the Stock Rally That Cheered His Midterm Defeat

Democrats' landslide midterm victory kicked off a stock rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned in its best session in 18 months, and the S&P 500 notched all-time highs. Trump had spent the campaign warning that a Democratic win would bring a 1929-style depression.

He claimed the credit anyway. In a social media post, Trump crowed that the market had hit another record high — 91 days of records in under two years — and told followers their 401(k)s were through the roof, signing off with his full name in capitals.

The irony was hard to miss. The initial surge appeared to reflect relief that Trump would face constraints: markets dislike uncertainty, and a divided government makes sweeping policy changes harder to push through. His weakened hand could also nudge him toward a more conciliatory line on Iran, a shift that helped send oil prices tumbling.

Then the mood turned sharply. Stocks plunged on Thursday as investors fretted that Democratic control would mean tougher regulation of the AI industry. The same election result that might tie Trump's hands could also put a leash on the AI investment boom — and after claiming the gains so eagerly, he may find it harder to pin the losses on Democrats.

Trump's boasting is silly on its face, since presidents have relatively little sway over share prices, which move on earnings, valuations and everything in between. Markets also rise over time, handing most presidents a pile of record highs to claim. Still, his fixation has a useful edge: Trump is no details man, yet he knows exactly how many records the market has logged on his watch. After his 2024 victory, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel called him the most pro-stock-market president in US history, arguing that identification with market performance could check policy excesses — and his April 2025 retreat from sweeping tariffs, after markets and bond yields turned against him, showed that check in action.