Trader bets $100M on Nvidia options, chasing a 40% rebound

About an hour after Monday's opening bell, someone swapped an existing Nvidia call spread for a much more aggressive one, with more than $100 million in options premium changing hands. The core of the trade: buying 52,000 February 19 calls at the 195 strike for about $57 million, while selling the same number of 245-strike calls for the same expiry to shave $10 million off the cost. The result is a bullish call spread covering the next five months of trading.

The math is simple. Nvidia needs to trade above roughly $206 by expiration — about 15% higher — for the position to turn a profit. If the stock reaches the 245 strike it sold, that's a rally of nearly 40% and a return to the all-time high of $243 set on October 6.

SpotGamma's analysis suggests the trade was a roll down from an existing 210/255-strike call spread worth about $42 million that got closed out. Founder Brent Kochuba said the trader got more aggressive, moving to lower strikes for more upside exposure and higher delta — options-speak for how fast a contract's price reacts to the stock. Kochuba noted the spread makes sense because volatility is expensive heading into earnings, and called it a significant increase in upside delta exposure.

SpotGamma flagged the 52,000-lot purchase as the single biggest options trade on the tape Monday. Of the top 20 options trades by dollar amount that day, 12 were Nvidia, and flows leaned bullish by midday: 57% of options volume was tied to calls, with more than $660 million of call premium likely initiated by buyers.

The most heavily traded single contract was the 180-strike call expiring Monday, which needs Nvidia to recover 1.2% by the closing bell just to break even. All of it points the same direction — traders positioning for a rebound rather than a retreat, even as the company and its embattled CEO stay in the headlines.