Prediction markets put Democrats at 75% to sweep Congress

Prediction markets are leaning hard toward Democrats taking both chambers of Congress in the US midterms. Kalshi has the sweep priced at 75%, and Polymarket isn't far off at 75.5%, according to Cointelegraph. Two separate platforms landing within half a point of each other is traders speaking with one voice.

The money backing that view is substantial. Nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts has already changed hands across the two platforms. That's real capital on the line, not a vibe check — and it makes these odds one of the loudest signals in the run-up to the vote.

The crypto angle is where things get interesting. Several Senate races that could decide how digital assets are regulated are in play, and traders are currently favoring Democrats in Ohio, Maine and Alaska. Three contests, one potential rewrite of the rulebook.

Control of Congress has been the backdrop for every major crypto policy fight in Washington, from market structure bills to the treatment of stablecoins and exchanges. A sweep would hand one party the gavel in both chambers — and with it the ability to set the agenda rather than block it.

Prediction markets have become a fixture of this election cycle, letting traders put a price on political outcomes in real time. Whether they nail it again is now a matter of waiting for the ballots to be counted.