Prediction markets call it: Democrats take Congress as $1.9B floods the midterms

Traders have plowed almost $1.9 billion into election contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, per a Washington Post analysis — a record haul for a midterm cycle. And going into Tuesday's vote, the money is leaning hard one way: Democrats take Congress. A Democratic sweep sits at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket as of 4:30 p.m. UTC.

The breakdown: Kalshi punters give Democrats a 93% shot at the House and 75% at the Senate. Polymarket is close behind at 94.5% and 75.5%. It's a confident call — maybe too confident. Nine days ago, these same platforms had Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro at roughly 80% to win the runoff the day before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took it. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour's warning, per CNBC: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen.

For crypto, the Senate map is where it gets spicy. In Ohio, Defend American Jobs — part of the Fairshake super PAC network — burned 54% of its total expenses, dropping $36.9 million behind Senator Jon Husted and $19.7 million against crypto critic Sherrod Brown. Fairshake had already spent $40 million trying to unseat Brown in 2024. Traders aren't buying the sequel: Brown is priced at 72% on Kalshi and 72.5% on Polymarket, matching a final New York Times/Siena poll that had him up 49% to 44%. A Brown win could hand him the Senate Agriculture Committee gavel — the panel that oversees the CFTC.

Maine offers the flip side. Republican Senator Susan Collins was one of four Republicans who voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, stalling it in the Senate. Kalshi gives Democrat Troy Jackson a 71% chance of unseating her; Polymarket says 71.5%. October New York Times polling had Jackson up two points, and Stand with Crypto rates him strongly supportive of the industry.

Traders are also making bolder calls than the polls in a few tight spots. Alaska: Kalshi has Democrat Mary Peltola at 71% over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, despite a New York Times/Siena poll showing her ahead just 48% to 46% — both candidates are crypto-friendly, per Stand With Crypto. South Carolina, tied at 48% in that same poll, has Kalshi giving Republican Senator Darline Graham 71% over Democrat Annie Andrews. And Iowa flipped on Polymarket, where Democrat Josh Turek jumped to 52% over Republican Representative Ashley Hinson after months of Hinson leading.

Elsewhere the markets mostly echo the polls: Kalshi gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 79% in Michigan over Mike Rogers, and Democrat James Talarico 71% in Texas over Ken Paxton, with the final New York Times/Siena poll at 50% to 43%. A Paxton loss would sting the Digital Freedom Fund, the super PAC backed by Gemini's Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss that spent over $81,000 on his campaign — though Talarico is also pro-crypto. Polymarket's conditional markets are already eyeing the aftermath, pricing a 35% chance of a US recession by the end of 2027 if Democrats sweep, versus 19% if they don't.