PPL lifts capital plan by $2B, now $25B, on proposed Kentucky gas plant

CEO Vincent Sorgi told analysts on Friday's third-quarter earnings call that PPL's base capital plan for 2027 through 2030 is now $25 billion, $2 billion above the previous blueprint, mostly because of the proposed combined-cycle gas turbine plant in Kentucky. If regulators sign off, the plant would run 645 MW and hit commercial operations in the second quarter of 2032, per PPL's earnings presentation.

Kentucky is where the money is moving fast. PPL, which runs Louisville Gas and Electric and Kentucky Utilities there, plans to spend $3.6 billion in 2027, up from $2.3 billion in 2026, driven by new non-coal generation. Sorgi didn't hedge: “I personally think we're going to be building generation for the foreseeable future in Kentucky, just given what we see with the quarter-over-quarter movement in the pipeline.”

The pipeline backs him up. Kentucky's development queue expanded by 1 GW and now sits at 14.7 GW of potential load growth through 2032, with data centers accounting for 12.8 GW of that. The state's public service commission has denied PPL's past gas requests, and Sorgi pushed back hard, saying “conservatism is not cost-free” and that being overly cautious “ends up costing our customers.” PPL expects to file its next Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity in the first quarter of 2027, but only after signing a data center electric service agreement.

Pennsylvania is humming too. PPL's data center pipeline in advanced stages grew for the 11th straight quarter, hitting 35.3 GW — a 3.5 GW jump from the second quarter. Projects with at least a 50% probability of success climbed to 4 GW of additional peak demand, with an average success probability near 85%, Sorgi said.

Friday also brought a fresh partnership: Invitium Energy, the joint venture PPL owns 51% of alongside Blackstone, signed a letter of intent with QTS Data Centers to be its generation provider in parts of Pennsylvania. Blackstone also owns QTS. The deal covers roughly 2 GW of generation for QTS's Salem Township data center project on a 20-year initial term with options for multiple five-year renewals, built around two combined-cycle natural gas plants plus fuel cells and battery storage. Payments are structured with fixed monthly charges that escalate annually, covering capital returns and fixed operating costs, plus variable payments when the plants run.

Sorgi said the midterm election results could play in PPL's favor, noting both Pennsylvania and Kentucky governors have signed executive orders on developing data centers. He argued restrictions elsewhere could push more projects toward his two states: “Some of the election results could, in some other states, potentially have a chilling impact, which could drive some of those projects or future development projects to both Pennsylvania and Kentucky.”