Paul Ryan: Trump Will Get 'Really Frustrated' by a Democratic Congress

Trump is not going to enjoy the new Washington. That's the read from former House Speaker Paul Ryan, who told CNBC's David Faber at the CNBC Connect: Balance of Power event on November 5, 2026 that the president will likely handle a Democratic Congress poorly. Asked how Trump would cope, Ryan said: 0Probably not well. I think he's going to get really frustrated.1 He added that Trump has 2seen this movie before,3 pointing to his first term's divided stretch, and guessed things 2not going to go well from a temperament standpoint.3

Ryan knows the terrain. His speakership overlapped with Barack Obama's final year, and he described that era as 0Venn diagram conversations1 — arguments, then the hunt for common ground. 0We had a mechanistic professional relationship that worked out fine,3 Ryan said, crediting mutual respect and kept words. He doesn't expect a sequel. 0I don't think this one's going to go like that,3 he said.

Immigration is where Ryan sees an opening. Trump told 0 60 Minutes1 on Sunday he was open to working with Democrats and floated a deal on immigration, calling his administration's deportation policy 2too tough3 and expressing interest in legal status for people who have been here 0ten and 15 years.1 Ryan said a hawkish immigration president cutting a legal-immigration and border deal with a Democratic Congress 2would be a good thing for America.3 He thinks Trump himself is 2more amenable to fixing legal immigration than the people around him.3 Since then, Trump named Stephen Miller — an architect of his mass-deportation push — as his new chief of staff.

Ryan had advice for incoming Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries: manage expectations, especially with the new first-term members. Impeachment would be a trap, Ryan warned. 0They would be foolish to say we're going to impeach [Trump]. They'll just make this thing partisan, that would be a ridiculous move,3 he said. Jeffries should build a message of 2what they're for,3 Ryan added, which means saying 2no to a lot of people who are out for blood.3 He still expects plenty of oversight hearings given voter focus on corruption.

On legislation, Ryan is watching a Russian sanctions bill he wants 2more airtight3 than this year's Graham Act, with less waiver authority or a veto-proof threshold. He also sees bipartisan potential in AI and data center legislation flowing from the Jay Clayton-led Super Intelligence Force, launched in October, possibly creating a FINRA-style agency for AI. Debt limit or debt reduction deals? 2Not holding out hope for that,3 Ryan said.

AI was on the ballot, and voters backed data center restrictions. In Texas, home to the largest U.S. data center buildout, Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott after calling for an immediate moratorium, though she has since softened to let ongoing construction continue. Dan Ives, partner at Yorkville Ives & Co., wrote Wednesday that Democratic control, especially of the Senate, will create 2major hurdles for AI and tech legislation in the Beltway over the next 2 years,3 adding that data centers 2just got a little more expensive.3