Oil slips as Iran diplomacy flickers, but Hormuz ship attacks rattle supplies

Crude prices dropped as hopes for a negotiated end to the Iran war resurfaced. Trump, who meets Qatar's prime minister today, played down the prospect of renewed fighting. A burst of meetings between Chinese and Gulf leaders also gave traders reason to bet on de-escalation.

Washington's message stayed muddled. Trump's secretary of state called some of Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous," undercutting the optimism. Fresh attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz sharpened the threat to oil flows through the chokepoint.

The politics add another layer. Midterm elections have clipped Trump's domestic power, and a leading political scientist argued that could push him to act more aggressively abroad, telling Semafor: "We are at a moment of heightened peril."