Nvidia's China revenue may hit 10% as spy case pulls chipmaker into the spotlight

New Street Research put a number on Nvidia's China problem Monday: as much as 10% of revenue may come from China, directly or indirectly, a slice the firm values at $37 billion to $47 billion. That's measured against consensus estimates New Street cited for Nvidia's total fiscal 2027 revenue of $411 billion. Wall Street's worry isn't demand anymore — it's what happens if Washington starts asking harder questions about where the chips land.

The spark is a spy story. US intelligence assessed that Alice Huang, a former senior executive at Singapore data center firm Megaspeed, was a Chinese intelligence asset tied to Beijing's Ministry of State Security, according to The New York Times, which reported the assessment in late October 2026. She's accused of passing information to Beijing and helping facilitate access to restricted Nvidia chips. Huang reportedly had a close romantic relationship with Jensen Huang.

Megaspeed is no small buyer — it has purchased nearly $5 billion in Nvidia AI chips over the past few years, and it has already drawn scrutiny over allegations it tried to sidestep US export rules. Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation on November 8, 2026, examining whether Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence operation. The same day, Huang apologized publicly for being unfaithful to his wife and pledged to cooperate. Shares fell as much as 8% before clawing back some ground.

The commercial math has been shrinking for years. Washington began imposing strict export controls on advanced AI chips in 2022, and China's share of Nvidia revenue slid from roughly 19% to about 9% in fiscal 2026. Complying hasn't been free: Nvidia swallowed substantial inventory charges on the alternative chips it built specifically for Chinese customers.

That's what makes the word 'indirectly' in New Street's note sting. Direct China sales are countable; chips routed through third-party buyers in places like Singapore are not. If restricted hardware was diverted through an intermediary, the controls leaked — and the vetting chipmakers do on their most advanced customers becomes the next target.

Nobody is pricing in an overnight collapse of Nvidia's China business, and New Street frames the exposure as meaningful but not dominant against that $411 billion top line. The sharper risk is regulatory. Wall Street is already whispering about a potential crackdown, and the board probe's findings could shape how hard Washington swings. Watch the investigation's outcome, any regulatory response to the Megaspeed relationship, and whether Nvidia says more about how it tracks where its chips actually end up.