North Korea's weapons testing runs at twice Trump's first-term pace

North Korea has carried out more than 20 weapons launch events in 2026 as of Nov 8, according to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, putting Kim Jong Un’s testing pace at more than twice where it stood at the same point in Donald Trump’s first term. Four of those tests came in the past two weeks alone, just as Trump prepares to travel to Asia. The surge raises the price of any concession Kim might offer in talks with Washington.

The 2026 tally is second only to 2022, when North Korea ramped up testing while starting to supply weapons for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Since Trump threatened “fire and fury” in 2017, Kim’s arsenal has expanded and diversified. It now includes dispersal warheads, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, drones and a system North Korea calls hypersonic. Kim is also pushing beyond strategic weapons aimed at the US mainland.

Adam Farrar, a former National Security Council director on Korea and now a senior analyst at Bloomberg Economics, said the regime appears focused on testing and potentially fielding a more capable generation of close- and short-range ballistic missiles. That would give North Korea more targeting options in a conflict. Farrar also said missile testing is expensive and Kim has far more resources now, boosted by revenue from supporting Russia’s war and crypto thefts, making the systems potentially harder for regional air and missile defenses to defeat.

Reliability questions remain, but Jenny Town of the Stimson Center said the routine normalization of testing weapons of mass destruction is itself an achievement. She said the fact that such tests barely register even while tracked by militaries and intelligence agencies shows how much the world has come to terms with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Trump floated renewed outreach before the midterms, then in October played down expectations for engagement and said he doubted anyone was requesting a meeting. There is little sign Kim wants to meet soon. Democrats won control of Congress, and Trump may lean on his foreign policy authority at home. China confirmed last week it was in contact with the US and Russia about a possible trilateral leaders’ meeting at APEC in Shenzhen.

Since his 2019 meeting with Trump, Kim has deepened ties with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Town said North Korea has signaled a summit is possible but wants US policy changes first. In her view, North Korea is open to a better US relationship but is not willing to negotiate for it.