Musk says SpaceX's Anthropic compute deal cuts both ways after VC flags exit clause

Elon Musk isn't buying the idea that SpaceX's compute contract with Anthropic is a free option. Replying Sunday evening on X to a clip of Chamath Palihapitiya's comments shared by AI commentator Rohan Paul, Musk wrote: "It works both ways, of course. If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party."

On the All-In podcast released Sunday, Palihapitiya argued either side can walk away from the agreement on 90 days' notice. If data center supply tightens, he said, SpaceX could exercise that option and bring the contract back at two to three times the current price, leaving Anthropic little choice but to accept. He called it "the kingmaking move," according to BigGo Finance.

The clause itself isn't new. SpaceX's IPO filings in May disclosed that Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion per month for dedicated capacity at its Colossus clusters through May 2029, nearly $45 billion in total, with both companies able to terminate on 90 days' notice. SpaceX's later compute deals with Google and Reflection AI carry similar exit terms.

What has changed is the political backdrop. Palihapitiya's thesis rests on incoming Democratic governors pulling tax incentives for data centers and slowing new construction. In Texas, Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data center approvals, and Deutsche Bank analysts warned last week that SpaceX's Texas compute capacity could face delays. SpaceX and Tesla shares both fell after the midterm results.

SpaceX, which acquired xAI in February, has been renting data centers to outside AI labs before the space is needed for Grok. At the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Musk said the company was "getting 50 billion a year for 35 billion dollar investments" and can bring a data center online in eight or nine months, compared to two and a half years for competitors. He also said SpaceX is tracking toward an annualized revenue rate above $100 billion in December, with a "best guess" of $500 billion by December 2027.

Musk's own logic runs the other way too. Anthropic has signed large compute agreements with Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and if that capacity comes online faster than new construction slows, the AI lab would have its own leverage to renegotiate or leave. Musk has called Anthropic "obviously currently the leader in AI," and it remains one of SpaceX's largest compute customers. SpaceX shares rose more than 2 percent in overnight trading late Sunday, after closing Friday at $134.27, according to Stocktwits.